America Ten Years Out

Over the past year, or so, things have shifted for higher education in America. 

First off, the Dobbs decision, which overturned Roe v. Wade, has seen a number of states outlaw abortion. For a number of young women (and men too, perhaps), this will affect their choices regarding college applications. Consider: You are a young woman who is (or is hoping to be) sexually active in college. Will you risk applying to a campus in a state where you can't get an abortion, if needed?

I expect liberal arts campuses in states where the bans have taken hold will see a decline in applications from such students. The question will be, how drastically will this affect admissions and programs. For that we will have to wait and see, but, at the very least, I would expect greater polarization. Just as segregation left our country more geographically and ideologically polarized, the anti-abortion states will be more isolated, especially as outside voices increasingly don't intermingle at their colleges. College towns in red states will start to get redder.

Next, affirmative action has been struck down. A number of states had already gotten rid of this, and California provides really good data on what the results have been:

The data shows that getting rid of affirmative action makes campuses less diverse. They can make up some of the deficit with income-based selection, but it isn't as effective in promoting diversity as affirmative action. Once again, this means campuses will be less diverse - and provide narrower perspectives, opinions, and views.

The majority of an African American Studies courses may be mostly populated with black students, for example. But for the non-black students who are filling in the remainder of the seats, the courses may provide important insight into other perspectives besides their own. With declining black and Hispanic populations in colleges, that means those programs will probably suffer. Without access to different viewpoints, students may be less likely to examine their biases and personal histories - because the college population they find themselves in will reconfirm their biases and experiences. Banning affirmative action has already seen black and Hispanic students in those states avoiding applying to more selective schools. Elite colleges can admit based on legacy - which skews heavily towards privileged whites - but not, apparently, use the most effective tool to help lift black and Hispanic students to higher education - and, over the course of their lifetimes, greater economic gains as a consequence.

Economics will be affected also by the other major ruling, regarding student loan forgiveness. Americans owe $1.6 trillion in student loans, and the decision to disallow the Biden Administration from forgiving part of it will, of course, see fewer lower income students going to college in the future, as well as hold back a generation of borrowers from meeting the economic targets their parents had achieved by their age. This will, again, disproportionately harm black and Hispanic students. 36% of white students are first-generation college enrollments. By comparison Hispanic students are 74%, and black students 63%. By putting college out-of-reach for them, due to the exorbitant cost or crushing loans, it keeps them disadvantaged for the foreseeable future.

So. Ten years from now, picture the higher education archipelago of the United States. Across the board, fewer black and Hispanic students are in elite schools, and schools generally. Besides the west coast and New England, there are scattered islands of liberal universities. The south and most of the west and Midwest no longer attract students with perspectives at odds with their state legislatures. Institutions like Emerson, Belmont, Notre Dame - they are now increasingly dependent on more conservative white families for support, and their programs begin to reflect that. Like social media on the internet, going to college will reinforce your personal echo chamber - including mirroring your race.

Without major changes, these decisions will have a generational effect on earnings, the middle class, and our status as a debtor nation. Lacking the ladder of higher education out of poverty, wage and poverty issues will continue to be a drag on our country. Fewer high income individuals means more dependency on minimum wage - which remains far too low. The middle class will thin out even more, as people drop into poverty. Since the middle class is the driver of economic growth, this means a nation-wide economic loss. Homelessness will remain unacceptably high, without the resources and decreased charity. 

All told, these three decisions - unless there are big changes - will radically alter not just reproductive rights and university campuses, but will hasten income inequality, the gutting of the middle class, step-up reactionary labor movements and strikes, and further entrench systemic poverty and patterns of racial discrimination due to lack of opportunities - whether that is not being able to afford college, or having a child due to a failure in contraception, and being unable to get an abortion.

Rolling back abortion and affirmative action are vastly at odds with American opinion, of course. The majority of citizens support both, in growing numbers. Add to that that only 1/3 of Americans polled wanted the Supreme Court to strike down the student loan forgiveness and you have a picture of a hyper-conservative Court that does not reflect the will of the people, and does not see law as a way of supporting and lifting up its citizens.