2020

So I predicted 2016 would by Hillary vs. Rubio. I knew Clinton would almost definitely be the nominee, but like most pundits, I didn't predict Trump being a serious contender in the field. In a group where the only serious contenders were Cruz, Jeb Bush, and Rubio I still think Rubio probably would've pulled through just to avoid a Clinton/Bush showdown.

Anyway, for 2020 I've learned from my mistakes and I've decided to not predict who I think will get the nod, but merely who my dream team combo is, which is:

Newsom - Duckworth

Gavin Newsom is probably going to become California's governor in a few months, when Jerry Brown retires. That'll bring him to national prominence. Former experience: Lt. Governor / Mayor of San Francisco who legalized gay marriage, and GQ cover model...

No, but seriously...

If. as it seems, all people care about is appearances Newsom looks like a President. A young, handsome man who will look good on a stage next to Trump. And who will wipe the floor with him during debates. He's a brawler and has liberal bona fides for the Bernie-ish part of base. For those who miss the young energy of Obama, for those who wanted a progressive, for those who want more West Coast representation, and for those who for whatever reason need a man to be in charge, he's the guy. For the old guard moneyed Dems, he's one of them. 

Tammy Duckworth is the current junior Senator from Illinois, and soon-to-be first Senator to give birth during her term. She was first elected in 2016 after serving in the House (elected in 2012) and is very popular with her constituents. She also served as the Assistant Secretary of the VA Department, due to her service in Iraq:

...And this is what inspiration looks like.

Now, I know the Trump base is the definition of 'shameless', for whom any sort of mockery is 'in-bounds', but I suspect a combat veteran who lost her legs in war may just be a bridge too far, especially for some of the military-background conservatives. She's more centrist than Newsom, and more mid-western. She can help with Michigan and Wisconsin, Ohio and Pennsylvania. She's the perfect person to have on the ticket for recapturing Obama democrats who went Trump, talking to the dispossessed in town halls, and showing the DNC's commitment to women. Oh, and she's an Asian-American. Which some people may, you know, notice.

In election hierarchies popular sitting Presidents defeat all comers, but then there's more of a toss-up with unpopular Presidents and popular Governors (Consider George HW Bush v. Clinton, or Carter v. Ford). Governors also tend to be likelier Presidents, generally. In the 42 years since 1976 we've only had 14 years under Senators, as opposed to those under Governors (Carter, Reagan, Clinton, and George W. Bush). And this holds up historically: From Grover Cleveland (1885) to FDR (1945) Former governors-turned-Presidents included Cleveland, McKinley, Teddy Roosevelt, Wilson, Coolidge, and Franklin Roosevelt. You want a governor at the top of the ticket.

To balance the knowing, Executive power, at the top of the ticket, you want a Senator VP who can corral the Senate, be the tie vote, and knows D.C. Granted, Duckworth is a bit young for this role, but after Hillary lost I think it's essential we have a (preferably Midwestern) female Senator, and she has the most nationally-visible profile. (Not that there's a lot of competition in that field...) I would love to see her go up against Pence on a debate on values.

Both are youthful, which is critical. We don't want grandparents after 2016. I love Warren, and Bernie, but the Dems are seen as too old. Schumer, Pelosi, Feinstein - they're all so old. Duckworth is 49, Newsom is 50. Both will be the right age to take on Trump and Pence in 2020.

Spoilers / Other Good Candidates:

Corey Booker, Senator from New Jersey

Tammy Baldwin, Senator from Wisconsin

Kamala Harris, Senator from California

Kate Brown, Governor of Oregon

Muriel Bowser, Mayor of D.C.

Joe Kennedy III, Congressman from Massachusetts

'Cause we Democrats just can't help ourselves...