And So It Begins...

With Warren’s forming of an official exploratory committee, it begins. The next 22 months will be a protracted race for the 2020 Presidency. And there is a new, highly consequential difference between this election season and those previous.

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Primaries. They can be voting-based, or caucuses, but regardless they determine the nominee. The party die-hards show up and nominate a candidate – non-affiliated independent voters have no say in this crucial first step. Only after the primaries does the Party have the official Convention to declare their candidate.

The first four primaries are supposed to serve as a snapshot of the country: one state each from the Midwest, the Northeast, the South, and the West. These states are Iowa (6 electoral votes), New Hampshire (4 electoral votes), South Carolina (9 electoral votes), and Nevada (6 electoral votes). These are medium-small states. And, excepting South Carolina, they can wobble between voting for Republicans and Democrats. Nevada is only very tentatively starting to be chalked up to the Democrats – same with New Hampshire. Iowa voted for both parties pretty consistently over the past two decades.

The Presidential candidates, which for 2020 will probably just be Democrats, will spend a lot of time in these four states, going to Iowa County Fairs, New Hampshire backyards, and schmoozing with the big Las Vegas donors of Nevada. South Carolina is important, though, for gauging certain aspects of your campaign – because the South votes for three type of Democratic candidates: 1) Conservative Democrats (an essentially extinct breed), 2) Candidates who come from the South, and 3) Candidates who resonate with black voters.

Now, it is not a coincidence that from 1964 to 2008 all the Democratic Presidents were southerners (LBJ, Carter, and Clinton). For example, Clinton in 92, being the governor of Arkansas, was able to pick up his home state as well as Louisiana, Georgia, and Tennessee. Carter – the governor of Georgia – swept the South in 76, riding high on disgust of the Nixon/Ford era.

But that was a different time. Consider that, in 1976, California voted Republican – as it would in every election between 1968 and 1992. The poles do realign, eventually. The country changes.

So, South Carolina doesn’t help much unless you’re either from the South or do well with black voters. It’s not a coincidence, after all, that it was Obama who broke the Southern Democratic President streak.

After those first four primary states, then, comes the initial Super Tuesday. A day which, for Democrats, is a real problem. Because the states that vote on Super Tuesday are mostly from the South. It’s a firewall, of sorts: unless you resonate with black voters, or more conservative Democrats, or are from a Southern state: you are going to have a very bad day. The states you need to win – after all – are almost certainly not going to vote for you in the general election. They are: Alabama, North Carolina, Oklahoma (which has the most conservative Presidential voting record in US history), Tennessee, and Texas. This Southern blockade is serious, and has been an issue in the general election. Even Al Gore, former TN Senator, didn’t win his state in 2000. And John Edwards, Kerry’s running mate in 2004, couldn’t deliver his home state of North Carolina.

Keeping this in mind, and looking at the likely strong candidates (ones who can actually raise money and have a shot), here’s who I am leaving out of the race as serious contenders, and why:

Joe Biden. Biden is too old (78 in 2020), and he will probably not do well as people dig into his past. Remember all those creepy backrubs? I don’t see him winning in any of the first four primary states.

Kirsten Gillibrand. If Warren wasn’t running, she’d have a shot. But Warren is more likely to win states like New Hampshire and Iowa. Gillibrand isn’t as well known.

Beto O’Rourke. He didn’t win. Against Ted Cruz. I mean, if you can’t win in your own state, that’s a dangerous gamble that you’ll do well with the rest of the country.

Eric Holder. Doesn’t place in even a distant third in the first three primaries. Maybe does well in South Carolina, but perhaps not against bigger names like Harris and Booker.

Bernie Sanders. Way too old (79 in 2020) and tarnished as an also-ran. The prevailing sense is that he had his moment – and now it’s over. Sanders and Biden do well in polling because they are well-known: They’ve hit the campaign trail before (Biden several times). But the Dems need a younger candidate, to increase their chance of success in the general election. Thor Hogan provides the data in his recent Washington Post piece.

So. Let’s now pivot to the actual strong candidates:

Elizabeth Warren

Cory Booker

Kamala Harris

Julian Castro

Only Castro is from the South (Texas) and Booker or Harris will do better in the other Super Tuesday Southern states (Alabama, North Carolina, Tennessee). I think Warren will probably do well in Oklahoma – since it is both her home state, and a “Southern” state that is only 6% black – unlike the others (Alabama – 25%, North Carolina – 22%, Tennessee – 16%, and Texas – 12%).

Let’s create a likely map, then, of early wins with these four candidates.

Iowa and New Hampshire likely go to Warren. South Carolina goes to either Booker or Harris. Nevada is messy – but possibly Castro. Warren, I don’t think, does well in the state, and Nevada is almost 30% Hispanic, which helps Castro, I should think.

Super Tuesday, March 3^rd, then has Alabama, North Carolina, and Tennessee going to Booker or Harris – or some sort of divvying if both are still in it at that point. Texas goes to Castro (nearly 40% Hispanic). Warren picks up Oklahoma – and the two Democratic states I’ve not yet mentioned which vote on that day: Massachusetts (Warren’s state) and Vermont.

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At the start of this column I suggested this year was different. And Super Tuesday is why – because this time around California will be the final, ninth, state to vote on that day.

Harris does well in CA just for name recognition as the state's Senator. It’s cheaper for her to campaign there as well. Booker and Warren are East Coasters, after all. California’s own governor, Gavin Newsom, has said he won’t be running, which clears out any CA hometown competition (he could, of course, change his mind). I think, however, that Castro could give Harris a run for her money in the state. And if Booker does well in SC and the Southern states, Harris may not make it to her home state race.

Imagine if Castro gets NV, CA, and TX, while Warren picks up the pieces, and Booker or Harris has a stronghold on the South? In the general election California and Texas have a combined 93 electoral votes – a third of all delegates could be in Castro’s pocket after Super Tuesday, if, say, Booker knocks out Harris.

Now, I don’t say this is likely, nor is this my prediction. I’m merely floating it as a potential outcome of the Democrat’s new primary calendar, with California as a Super Tuesday entrant. Harris is more likely to win CA than Castro. But Castro is the only other name, with Warren, who has actually taken the formal steps to run: He, too, has created an exploratory committee.

A Warren/Castro ticket would be formidable: it puts Florida seriously in play, as well as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Ohio – Midwestern states where Warren does well. On the other hand, it runs afoul of the Trump die-hards – the deplorables – who would like nothing better than to see Trump take the stage against “Pocahontas” and a Hispanic VP, Castro, going up against Pence. The Trumpists, the Fox News crowd, would turn out in droves. Someone Trump hasn’t had the same animosity with, like Harris, whom he’s not even insulted on Twitter (!) may keep the frothers at bay, while energizing a party that wants a young candidate. In the end, Warren, at 71 when the election rolls around, is much older than Harris (56 in 2020), Booker (51 in 2020), or Castro (46 in 2020). She was wise to form her committee early, and she will be counting on the steam of Iowa and New Hampshire to dampen her losses on Super Tuesday. But if Booker or Harris chooses eventually not to run, then she could settle accounts with Castro early, and provide a pretty strong, unified, Democratic ticket.

But what do I know? I predicted Castro would be on the ticket with Clinton years before she announced she was running, and she instead picked Tim Kaine. At any rate...